A quote variously ascribed to Yogi Berra, Neils Bohr or even Mark Twain goes something like: “Never make predictions, especially about the future.” Readers of this column, however, have ignored these wise words and have been clamouring for my predictions on technology in 2022. Peering myopically at my personal crystal ball, here is what I see:

AI Everywhere: Pretty much like digital, or electricity (as Peter Ng said), AI will not be one more thing we do, but will be infused in most objects around us – cars, phones, TVs, soon everything. This will bring in the Edge AI revolution, where AI is not in some central server somewhere, but embedded in objects ‘at the edge’. As AI becomes ubiquitous, questions about the ethics in AI, responsible AI and explainability will become more strident. I expect one large incident, a Cambridge Analytica of AI, to happen and bring AI ethics into common imagination.

For better or for Metaverse: The metaverse, NFT and Web3 hype will continue, fueled by crypto bros and even more bored apes. There is substance behind the hype – the rise of the creator economy and the proposed decentralisation of the web – but there is a lot of fluff too, and that will crash and burn. Alongside, crypto will continue to mature, with it becoming more mainstream and some of its real potential getting realised. Prediction: the first $100mn NFT will be sold this year (unless already done by the time the article goes to print!)

Elon Rules: 2021 was Musk’s year, I believe so will 2022. He will continue to shape energy, cars, space, transportation and other industries; he might pick a new one to reshape this year. As he does so, he will not only reign as the Tech Overlord, but also bring a new way of thinking, and a new set of rules to tech, and how it can be used to remake vast physical and infrastructure businesses. Thus, he will continue to be the richest man on earth, and in fact, will increase his lead over Bezos or Gates.

The Pandemic Ends: Here is where I am going to truly go out on a limb and say that 2022 will be the year that the COVID19 virus will decided to establish an equilibrium with the human race. The Omicron variant will convert the raging pandemic into an endemic, much like flu, and we will learn to live with it with periodic vaccines. Author Laura Spinney said in her book The Pale Rider that “pandemics end socially, not medically” and that is how this one will peter out too. However, this will not be the last one as the ravaging of Planet Earth prompt newer viruses to consider human hosts

The Rise of Green AI/Software: The cloud, AI, computers and electric cars are massively polluting industries, despite their impression of being clean and gentle. Manufacturing one PC needs 240 kg fossil fuels, training one model for natural-language processing emits the same amount of carbon dioxide as that of 125 New York /Beijing round trips, and the world’s data centers consume almost as much electricity as South Africa! As this awareness grows, we will see the advent of Green AI and green software, with governments and corporations starting to mandate this, similar to how they dictate Diversity & Inclusion, and ESG today.

Crunch Times: The two biggest crunches in the tech world in 2021 was semiconductors, as the global producers struggled with COVID-disrupted supply chains and an explosion in demand as the pandemic eased out; and the shortage of tech workers, as people discovered a new way to work. The semiconductor crunch will ease out, the people crunch will not. Tech is exploding – big tech growing rapidly, startups mushrooming and traditional companies going digital. The supply of tech workers cannot keep up, and the astronomical salaries they command will not ease up

The Future of Work is Here: The pandemic-enforced work-from-home, the continued rise of the gig economy, and the emergence of the ‘passion economy’ has ensured that the future that we envisioned in work – work from anywhere, multiple employers, work-life integration, and the redundancy of geography – has accelerated into the present. This has led to the Great Resignation and hybrid working among other massive disturbances; expect this to continue in 2022. As I have written earlier, the pandemic has forced us to decentralise everything – work, retail (ecommerce), food (delivery), health (telemedicine), education (study from home). This Great Decentralisation has set a trend, which I believe will be irreversible, and this is what is driving up the massive demand for technology and digital transformation, as traditional firms struggle to adapt.

It was another wise person who said that “Any believable prediction of the future will be wrong. Any correct prediction of the future will be unbelievable.” Which one of the two these are, we will have to wait a year to find out. Let it be a good one.

The author publishes a fortnightly column on technology in the Mint which is a leading Indian publication. 

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